Back in Jan this year as nations contemplated and debated lock down, “experts” raised concerns regarding the potential damage to the economy. Especially retail speeding. This rhetoric seemed to be couched in the form of an Einstein discovery.
Billions of people imprisoned in their homes? Generally unable to get to the shops?
Especially those whose society was less digitised than say China for example.
How could retail spending not fall? Therefore, to most of us, this was more like a Homa Simpson “Duh” moment. A recipe for disaster.
As we now all know, the impact, whilst hard hitting varied around the globe. It also varied from sector to sector. In countries like China, with a well developed digital lifestyle the already mature and hot E-com took up the slack.
So whilst B& M stores struggled, suffered and shuttered, many brand took less of a hit thanks to their online stores. However, the big test would be the National 18th July Shopping Extravaganza to see just how fast, if at all, spending would bounce back. That is now history.
Now, and this is the important bit- for years we have banged on about Luxury being a good market indicator in China- in fact, our keyboards can write it themselves now! In other words, “where the lux market goes, mainstream generally follows.”
We mean is; even if your core China business is boring beige widgets, keeping a weather on on lux gives you a fair indication of trends in China. The big question mark now is- how accurate is this? Are we right? With that in mind- sort of, this headline from Caixin caught our eye:
Luxury goods companies saw profits dive across the board in the first half of 2020 as people avoided extravagances and stayed inside during the coronavirus pandemic — but it wasn’t bad news everywhere, with the China market providing a glimmer of hope.Caixin.com
The story -partially pay walled content- briefly discusses how, in China at least, luxury spending is on the increase- No, not online, but Brick and Mortar stores- as the image [ also courtesy of Caixin] illustrates. The leading question is, will this hold true for the rest of the world?
Given recent stats that show the top 20% rich list grew their income during the pandemic whilst the rest of us lost- more than likely. However for us; Bicyu /Aim2D, it is more personal.
Will this boost in retail luxury spending spread across to mainstream retail?
Time, as they say, will tell.
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